Mobile Disruption | The Death of the Voice Plan and the Rise of the Social Connectivity Application

We know that apps are displacing traditional wireless communications services including text and voice. The question is, at what point do we have a catalyzing force that makes these solutions palatable to a mainstream audience? And in doing so, completely transforming the nature and business model of mobile broadband providers while fusing today’s social web and everyday voice connectivity services into a totally new ecosystem?

The tablet, despite early struggles to create an open platform, is only months from hitting its stride. We are nearing the second iteration of Google’s tablet ready OS, we are approaching windows 8. Why is this important? These are the devices that will support peripheral device connectivity in particular inexpensive wireless b3G/4G broadband modems. These modems, either integrated or added will allow end-users to opt for data-only plans and utilize applications for social and voice connectivity. We can call this app-based connectivity. The wide availability of this new supporting hardware and the already proliferating application services for voice, chat, and social networking are the catalyzing forces that will allow mainstream consumers to abandon voice and text as a wireless service.

The advent of the tablet is the first embodiment of continuous trends culminating in a disruptive event. First, the underlying hardware enabling mobile high-definition multi-media experiences is decling in price. Second, the software platform enabling an open hardware platform, which disrupts the relationship between the service provider and hardware provider, is now entering market. If iPhones came with a device port that enabled any 3G/4G modem to be installed, and if the price were low enough that subidization were a weaker force, we would already be well down this path. Indeed, one might say, that Apple is propping up the entire wireless market. Merely by opening a data port, and through the availability of voice communication applications, the lock in of the wireless service provider is broken. What Apple will not do, the army of PC and tablet hardware vendors will do on Android and Windows 8. The last is the chink in the armor created by the wireless broadband modem and data service. They already exist, and they create the opportunity for the early market of app-centric connectivity and voice service subsitution to develop today.

For example, today you can purchase an Acer Iconia Tegra-2 based tablet at NewEgg for about $310. You can easily root this device (which I remind you is legal) and use a wireless 3G modem for about $50. At this point, any number of non-cell provider connectivity applications abound, creating an efficient and competitive marketplace for the voice portion of service and allowing you to pay an efficient rate for aggregate data from your wireless service provider. It is the creation of this competitive marketplace for social and voice connectivity services that will disrupt today’s wireless providers. And it will happen quickly, faster than established providers can corner or manage creating a diverse ecosystem of digital voice and social connectivity providers. This new ecosystem will challenge existing social networks, Apple, and of course the wireless old-guard.

Today, data plans for such modems are significantly less expensive than a traditional voice and text service. Today a 2GB 3G modem data plan is $40-$50 depending on provider. This will enable broad range application based services, avoiding the high price of locked in features such as texting which alone is $20 with many service providers. The advent of ubiquitous data-only solutions will close the data arbitrage opportunity texting and voice provide, which utilize little data but permit higher retail prices.

The new ecosystem of connectivity applications is the origin of nothing less than the digitization of all conversations, the Social Web 2.0 where the potential of online social conversation is consolidated with all traditional distance conversations including voice, video and text. Today’s view of the social web may be too narrow even for the most optimistic futurists. The social web is about to digitize all conversations and non-proximate communications. It will engulf and incorporate traditional voice communication through the collapse of non-application based voice service enabled by open mobile platforms. The rise begins with the opening of data ports on small tablets. These ports will enable mobile devices to bind to any mobile network and to access data-only plans at a significantly lower cost to consumers, with applications opening significant advances in the way in which voice incorporates into the now supernova social web. These social connectivity applications, a new ecosystem built on the foundation of the social web and web-video services will challenge all comers, disrupting existing social networks, building new communities, and transforming all-media conversation. If it sounds a bit grand and overplayed, come back in two years and read this again. It will read like a retrospective, I promise you.

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